In a topsy-turvy election year, does America’s 2024 presidential contest summon ghosts from 1968—or, is a late-breaking 1980-style landslide in the cards? Historian Niall Ferguson appears solo on this “mini” edition of GoodFellows to discuss the current political landscape, what roles an aging electorate and the “gender gap” will play in America’s election, plus a fondness for tariffs shared by two very different Republicans: Donald Trump and William McKinley (aka “the tariff king”). Niall also discusses the challenges in raising two young sons in the Information Age, and his renewed appreciation for the works of Kurt Vonnegut.

The US is already in Cold War 2.0 with China...and a Chinese invasion or blockage of Taiwan is likely to occur by the end of this decade, paralleling the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. That’s according to esteemed historian and author Niall Ferguson, who has been sounding the alarm since 2018, when he started formulating his Cold War 2 thesis partly after conversations with Henry Kissinger. This video details Ferguson’s Cold War II thesis: USA vs China, by drawing a number of parallels with the First Cold War with the U.S.S.R.

In both Cold Wars, there are two dominant powers, competing on various dimension including: ideological, geopolitical, economic, and technological.

A number of clips from Niall Ferguson’s past interviews and presentations on this topic are presented in this video detailing his analogy that paints a compelling picture of why the US is in the early stages of Cold War 2.0. He also goes into depth on a number of related parallels and topics, including:

* Why Ukraine is the first “hot war” of CW2, just as the Korean War was the first one of CW1.

* Israel, Iran and the importance of the Middle East in both Cold Wars

Geopolitical flash points: he equates the Cuban Missile Crisis to the possible “The Taiwan Semiconductor Crisis”….with a critical difference that puts the US at a critical disadvantage

* Key differences and similarities between the first and second Cold War, and what the West should do about it to avoid World War 3.

An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassin’s bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her party’s course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophy’s hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vance’s qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Biden’s lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.

The conversation between Niall Ferguson and Jonah Goldberg revolves around the question of whether the United States is becoming like the Soviet Union. Niall argues that the decline in life expectancy, rising mortality rates, and the disillusionment of ordinary Americans resemble the Soviet Union's experience. He also points out the disconnect between the elite and the masses, with the American elite no longer believing in the distinctiveness of the United States. Jonah disagrees, stating that while there are real problems in the US, the causes and solutions are different from those of the Soviet Union. He also emphasizes the importance of freedom of speech and rejects the idea that the US is morally equivalent to the Soviet Union.

UnHerd's Freddie Sayers meets Niall Ferguson.

With public calls to remove the sitting US President, a UK election set to unseat its government and the rightward swing in Europe, it’s all change on the Western front. Best-selling historian Sir Niall Ferguson joins UnHerd’s Freddie Sayers for a wide-lens tour of populism and its discontents.

Niall Ferguson, the celebrated historian who predicted Cold War II in 2018, has assembled the sharpest minds from both sides of the Bamboo Curtain for a discussion on the future of U.S.-China relations.

David Daokui Li

Andrew Erickson

Niall Ferguson

Keyu Jin

Matt Pottinger